Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
Fund managers are keeping cash in hand amid strong inflows and elevated valuations in the small and midcap space. Stress data shows that nearly half of the schemes in the smallcap space are holding cash of 5 per cent or more at the end of February 2024. By comparison, only 20 per cent of the midcap schemes had over 5 per cent cash in their portfolio during the same period.
Major credit issuers, including the largest - HDFC Bank - have integrated their systems with the Bharat Bill Payment Systems (BBPS) for receiving credit card repayments via third-party applications.
Mutual funds (MFs) scooped up smallcap shares across sectors such as healthcare, banking and financial services in March 2024 amid a near 4.5 per cent fall in key smallcap indices. Aster DM Healthcare, NLC India, and Aavas Financiers topped the list of most-bought stocks in the Rs 10,000-40,000 crore market capitalisation (mcap) bracket, according to a study by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Aster and Aavas had corrected by 13 per cent and 10 per cent in March, respectively, while NLC India ended the month with a 2.5 per cent gain.
After subdued earnings in the first half amid global headwinds, India Inc is taking a cautious approach on their capital expenditure (capex) for the second half of the financial year ending March 2025, according to management commentary. Minutes from the October monetary policy meeting show the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) optimism about private investments picking up.
'Doctors feel they have a duty to prolong a heartbeat at all costs.' 'And a son or a daughter feels, I can't let my mum die. I have to save her at all costs.' 'They think saving is just prolonging life. But the person suffers.'
The race to acquire diversified fintech firm Religare Enterprise Limited (REL) intensified as Dabur group promoters, the Burman family, said it was going ahead with the open offer on Monday and claimed that the counter offer made by US-based businessman Digvijay Gaekwad wasn't valid and will not stand scrutiny of market regulator Sebi. The Burman family claimed that the competing offer falls outside the 15-day window stipulated by the Sebi takeover code, following their initial offer on October 4th, 2023.
the largest transactions of the year include the merger of Quality Care India and Aster DM Healthcare valued at $5.08 billion, followed by Bharti Enterprises' acquisition of a 24.5 per cent stake in the BT Group at $4.08 billion, and a family settlement transaction in the Godrej family at $3.5 billion.
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
The last batch of quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will guide the equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Volatility may continue amid investors' cautious approach in the election season. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.
Commissions paid to mutual fund distributors (MFDs) increased by over 20 per cent for most large fund houses in 2023-24 (FY24), driven by a sharp market rally and strong inflows. The largest fund house, SBI Mutual Fund (MF), which now manages nearly Rs 10 trillion in assets, paid Rs 2,025 crore to its major distributors - 21 per cent higher than the Rs 1,675 crore payout in 2022-23 (FY23).
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
The introduction of tax deducted at source (TDS) on income from central government securities and state bonds may not lead to a significant effect on retail participation, according to market participants. The Union Budget proposed that starting October 1, 2024, investors may face a 10 per cent TDS on investments in central government securities and state development loans (SDLs). "Last Budget, TDS on interest on securities was reintroduced.
Mint Road, on December 21, 2023, flagged the role of self-regulatory organisations (SROs) in strengthening the compliance culture in regulated entities (REs) and providing a consultative platform for policymaking. It also decided to issue an omnibus framework for SROs.
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
The Group of Ministers (GoM) on goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation, which convened in Goa on Wednesday, reviewed the GST rates for over 100 items, including textiles, handloom goods, agricultural products, fertilisers, and educational materials. However, no consensus was reached on any of the items, with further discussions scheduled for next month in Delhi.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
The ongoing fourth quarter earnings season, global factors and macroeconomic data would guide the trends in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Markets would also take cues from trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude. "Domestically, the next batch of Q4 earnings reports will drive stock-specific movements, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, BPCL, State Bank of India, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors are some of the big names in the list and the next phase of voting," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Certain foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), which operate as pooled investment vehicles (PIVs), may not be exempt from the additional disclosure mandates by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) following an update in the standard operating procedures (SOPs) for custodians. An updated version of the SOPs has specified several conditions to be met for PIVs to benefit from the exemptions granted. These include no segregated portfolios, independent investment manager, and investors having pari-passu (equal) rights in the entity.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
Private equity (PE) activity in India between January and November 2024 recorded a total value of $30.89 billion across 1,022 deals, a 22.7 per cent increase in value and an 18.4 per cent rise in deal count compared to $25.17 billion across 863 deals during the same period in 2023. Notable large deals during the period include Walton Street India Investment Advisors at $1.5 billion, and KiranaKart Technologies at $1.35 billion.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday said the outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth. It said Indian banks' profitability will increase further on lower provisioning expenses and robust growth in higher-yielding retail segments. "Our outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth.
'Journalists must ask the Mumbai police why are they sending notices via X to cartoonists.' 'The Mumbai police must come clean. Who is giving them such orders?'
'Consider your household's financial health and all your other goals.' 'Buying a house might seem like an urgent goal, but it is rarely the only one.'
Equity markets may witness a gradual up-move this week with some volatility as both election and earnings season are nearing their end, analysts said, adding that global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would hold significance in dictating investors' sentiment. Benchmark indices, which had a record-breaking rally last week, would also track global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend. The monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday may also fuel volatility in markets.
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
The average cost of data breaches in India reached $2.18 million in 2023, marking a 28 per cent increase since 2020, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Currency and Finance report for 2023-24. The report said that India's average data breach cost was still below the global average. The most common attacks in India are phishing which was at 22 per cent and stolen or compromised credentials was 16 per cent. The automotive industry is highly vulnerable to cyber attacks, whereas the banking and financial services sector, benefiting from stringent regulations, enjoys comparatively stronger protection.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
'Value index funds are most appropriate for long-term investors who can withstand deeper drawdowns.'
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, inflows minus outflows, declined 38.4 per cent year-on-year to $15.41 billion in the first 10 months of this financial year due to an increase in the repatriation of capital. According to the Reserve Bank of India's data in the March 2024 bulletin, FDI in India was $25.53 billion and outflows were $10.11 billion in April 2023-January 2024. In the same period last year, FDI inflows stood at $36.75 billion and outflows at $11.75 billion.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
'Before you work on your business plan, before you build your team, you should have a clear idea about what your product is, who your customer is, how valuable the product is, and whether the market is deep and wide.'
The Income Tax Department has notified ITR forms 1 and 4, which are filed by individuals and entities with annual total income of up to Rs 50 lakh for FY 2023-24 (AY 2024-25). Individuals, besides Hindu Undivided Families (HUFs), firms having income up to Rs 50 lakh and those having earnings from business and profession in the current fiscal (April 2023-March 2024) can start filing returns for the income earned this financial year.
India has slipped two places on the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap index to 129th place, while Iceland retained its top position in the rankings published on Wednesday. Within South Asia, India was ranked fifth after Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan, while Pakistan was ranked last. Globally, Sudan was ranked last on the index of 146 countries, while Pakistan slipped three places to 145th.
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